Not a legacy. Not a recruit. Still in the game.
Your real odds at 320 colleges, worked out from each college's own numbers, with an estimate for recruited athletes and legacies taken out of Early Decision.
Three answers, then the truth.
No sign-up to start. Tell us three things and see where you stand at every college.
Tell us three things
Your sex, where you live and your SAT or ACT, or none. That's all the colleges report on.
See your odds, free
Your odds at nearly every college, with the math behind each one, next to the college's own admit rate.
Unlock the plan
Your recommended list, Early Decision vs Regular everywhere, and your chance of at least one offer.
The ED number you've seen is inflated.
University of Pennsylvania admits 13.3% of its Early Decision applicants. But that pool includes recruited athletes and legacies, admitted at far higher rates. Take out an estimate for them and an unhooked applicant's ED odds are closer to 9.9%. Still better than Regular Decision, just not by as much as it looks.
Free to look. One pass to plan.
The data is free for everyone, always. The season pass is for the student making real decisions this fall.
Free
- Your odds at nearly every college, with the math
- Every college's own numbers and trends
- Rankings, deadlines and insights
- What admitted students did, college by college
Season pass
- Your recommended list: best ED choice + balanced picks
- Early Decision vs Regular at every college
- Your chance of at least one offer
- What admitted students did, across your list
- Chat about your list
What the numbers say.
Every card comes from a college's own Common Data Set.
University of Pennsylvania's ED number is inflated.
13% of Early Decision applicants get in, but that pool includes recruited athletes and legacies, admitted at far higher rates. Without them, our estimate is about 9.9%. Everyone else: 3.7%.
Northeastern University's ED number is inflated.
35% of Early Decision applicants get in, but that pool includes recruited athletes and legacies, admitted at far higher rates. Without them, our estimate is about 29%. Everyone else: 4.0%.
International applicants face 7.6× tougher odds at Washington and Lee University.
1.8% of international applicants are admitted, against 14% overall.
International applicants face 6.9× tougher odds at Lehigh University.
4.2% of international applicants are admitted, against 29% overall.
Dartmouth College's ED number is inflated.
22% of Early Decision applicants get in, but that pool includes recruited athletes and legacies, admitted at far higher rates. Without them, our estimate is about 17%. Everyone else: 3.8%.
Living in NC makes University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 5.7× easier.
In-state applicants are admitted at 38%, out-of-state at 6.6%.
Living in TX makes University of Texas at Austin 4.8× easier.
In-state applicants are admitted at 36%, out-of-state at 7.5%.
At Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering, women get in 3.1× as often.
Women are admitted at 42%, men at 13%.
At Harvey Mudd College, women get in 2.6× as often.
Women are admitted at 21%, men at 8.0%.
Getting into Caltech is 2.6× harder than in 2018.
The admit rate fell from 6.6% (2018-19) to 2.6% (2024-25).
Getting into New York University is 2.2× harder than in 2018.
The admit rate fell from 20% (2018-19) to 9.2% (2024-25).
Applications to University of Florida are up 133%.
From 38,905 in 2018-19 to 90,523 in 2025-26.
Questions
Is this a guarantee?
No. These are estimates for a typical applicant with your test score, sex and home state, at each college, from that college's own numbers. Essays, grades, activities and recommendations matter and we can't see them. Every number shows how it was worked out.
Where do the numbers come from?
From the Common Data Set each college files every year: 320 colleges, about 2,200 filings. Where federal IPEDS data covers the same year, the admissions numbers are checked against it. Early-round numbers come from what colleges publish. All of it is free on Open College Data.
Why are Early Decision odds lower than the ED admit rate?
A college's ED admit rate includes recruited athletes, legacies and other hooked applicants, who are admitted at very high rates. If you're not one of them, your ED odds are lower, so we take out an estimate of them (assumption A12), based on published research on hooked admissions. It's an estimate, and we say so.
Do you use Reddit or forum posts?
Not for your odds. Students' posts appear separately as tactics (what admitted students say they did), clearly marked as self-reported.
What does the season pass include?
Your recommended list (best Early Decision choice plus balanced reaches, targets and likelies), Early Decision vs Regular Decision at every college, your chance of at least one offer, what admitted students did across your list, and chat. One payment covers the whole 2026–27 cycle, through July 2027.
Can I get a refund?
Yes, within 7 days if it isn't useful to you. Just write to us.